Deconstruct to fundamentals
First Principles Thinking
The Cold Reality
If an argument relies on 5 sequential assumptions at 90% confidence each, your actual probability of being right is not 90%—it's 59%.
0.90⁵ = 59%
Common Mistake
Reasoning by Analogy - Looking at existing market rates and adding linear adjustments.
The Better Substitute
Deconstructive Reductionism - Strip systems to independent variables. Calculate raw physics first.
🧠 Linear Thinking
What your brain naturally does: 1 + 1 + 1 = 3
Result: Sub-optimal decisions
📊 Geometric Reality
How the world actually works: 1.01³⁶⁵ = 37.78
Result: Exponential gains